I got into a heated exchange with a good friend of mine this weekend about drafting NFL quarterbacks in the 1st round. My position was 1/2 of NFL quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round don't really pan out or end up being absolute busts. His position was you need a quarterback drafted in the 1st round to win the Super Bowl. This argument raged on for several hours to the point of nausea, but I had to determine who was right and who was wrong. After much research here is the results.
In his defense:
Last year 20 of the 32 NFL teams started a quarterback drafted in the 1st round. 8 of the 12 playoff teams from last year started a quarterback drafted in the 1st round including the eventual Super Bowl champ.
A quarterback drafted in the 1st round has won 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls.
In my defense:
Since 1987 57 quarterbacks have been chosen in the 1st round. 22 of them have made the Pro Bowl and 6 of them have won Super Bowls.
Over the last 25 years a quarterback drafted in the 1st round has won the Super Bowl 13 times.
As you can see my argument wins statistically. Quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round pan out about half the time. On the flip side, if you take Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady out of the equation a quarterback drafted in the 1st round has won 13 of the last 20 Super Bowls. I'm not willing to take a draw in this debate so let me know your thoughts. Which one of us is right?