There are times when something looks so predictable you end up with the opposite result. In the sportsbook world this phenomenon is referred to as the double jinx. On paper the New England Patriots are the better team, but for some reason I don't see them winning the Super Bowl.
The New York Giants are masters of the double jinx. They pulled it off in Super Bowl XLII when they beat the undefeated Patriots and again this year when they beat the undefeated Packers. The Giants aren't explosive on offense, but they do just enough to win. Their defensive line is stellar and has the tendency to make opposing quarterbacks feel uncomfortable.
The wild card however is Eli Manning. Most people underestimate his ability to make clutch plays. On the flip side he also makes costly mistakes at inopportune times. If he can limit the interceptions and fumbles the Giants have a legitimate shot to win the game.
The Patriots have better coaching. Tom Brady is better than Eli Manning. The Patriots have better tight ends and receivers. The Belichick dynasty is legendary. This is why the double jinx is so hard to accept. In my rational mind there's no way the Patriots can lose this game, but my intuition tells me something different. At the end of the day I'm following my instincts. Giants by a field goal over the Patriots.